How the bar
moves_
The bars rise when the world unlocks a new disaster signal. They fall when humanity does something reasonable.
On September 25, 2026, Edition 000 was recorded with all five scenarios at 40 points. This is a conventional editorial baseline: it does not mean their risks are equal.
01 / Up to three signals. Five scenarios.
Publications from the last seven days are reviewed across several sources. Severity, scope, credibility, novelty and direction are assessed. Coverage of the same event is grouped, and the event date is checked as well as its publication date. An old story republished is not a new signal.
Original sources are prioritized, and corroboration is sought for disputed claims. Positive signals count too. Three slots are not filled at the expense of evidence, and this selection is not presented as an exhaustive ranking of world news.
02 / Every change has a reason.
Mild, significant or strong tension.
Mild, significant or strong improvement.
Context without enough evidence to change the index.
The points are editorial decisions, not figures attributed to the sources. Each card explains its reason. Promises, meetings and statements do not automatically lower the bar. Rumors do not move it.
Impacts are added to each scenario’s previous value, and the result is kept between 0 and 100. The same event can move each scenario only once per documented substantive update. Running an edition again does not add points again.
03 / The global percentage.
A weighted average is calculated and rounded to the nearest integer. The weights are editorial and do not constitute a validated scientific model.
44 × 0.25 + 41 × 0.20 + 44 × 0.15 + 42 × 0.20 + 40 × 0.20 = 42.20 → 42%
The global change compares the displayed integers between editions. A small change can be hidden by rounding.
04 / Editorial history.
| Scenario | Baseline 000 | Edition 003 |
|---|---|---|
| Oven Mode | 40 | 44 |
| The Red Button | 40 | 41 |
| Pandemic: Season 2 | 40 | 44 |
| AI Already Read the Manual | 40 | 42 |
| Nature Left the Chat | 40 | 40 |
Edition 001 · September 25, 2026 ↗
Edition 002 · October 2, 2026 ↗
Edition 003 · October 9, 2026 ↗
Edition date: October 9, 2026. Source data have their own cutoff dates, stated in each signal. Sources and decisions are retained so errors can be corrected without hiding the reason.
05 / The dashboard’s mood.
The fine print you should actually read.
This is an editorial entertainment project. A score of 42% does not mean there is a 42% chance of the world ending. It is not a scientific, medical or financial prediction.